Judgement on top of the number
Somebody always adjusts the output. Whether that improves it depends entirely on whether the adjustment is recorded.
Somebody Always Adjusts It
In almost every organisation the published forecast is not the system output. Who adjusts it, why, and why the adjustment is usually invisible.
When Judgement Helps
Human adjustment improves a forecast under specific conditions. What they are, how to tell whether yours are met, and how to make the good adjustments more likely.
When Judgement Makes It Worse
The five patterns of harmful adjustment, how each shows up in the record, and the small controls that remove them without losing the useful kind.
Recording the Adjustment Separately
The three columns that make judgement assessable, what goes in the reason field, and what a year of the record lets you answer.
The Adjustment That Was a Negotiation
Some changes to a forecast are information and some are pressure. How to tell them apart, what to do when the request is pressure, and why the record is the defence.
The Monthly Forecast Review
A half-hour meeting with four items that keeps a forecasting function honest. What goes on the agenda, what does not, and who should be in the room.
What a Usable Forecast Looks Like
The assembled answer: what a forecast that can be used and judged actually contains, and what none of it requires.