How distance changes the object
A week out and a year out are different objects with different methods, different error and different decisions attached.
A Week Out and a Year Out Are Different Objects
Why a near-horizon and a far-horizon forecast are different objects rather than the same forecast at different precisions, and what follows from treating them as one.
Choosing the Horizon from the Lead Time
A short procedure for setting the horizon of each forecast from the decision it feeds, including what to do when the lead time varies and when it is unknown.
The Near Horizon, Where Nothing Can Change
What a one-to-three week forecast is for when the roster is already published, why its accuracy is usually wasted, and the two decisions that genuinely live there.
The Middle Horizon, Where Most Decisions Live
The four-to-sixteen week range is where most workforce decisions are actually taken, what it needs from the forecast, and why it gets the least attention.
The Far Horizon, and What It Can Honestly Say
What a forecast a year or more out can and cannot support, why scenarios beat point estimates there, and how to publish a far number that survives contact with a budget process.
Granularity Is Part of the Horizon
How fine a forecast should be at each distance, the test that decides it, and what spurious precision costs when it reaches a decision maker.
Rolling, Not Annual
Why a forecast that always reaches the same distance ahead beats one that reaches the end of the financial year, and what it takes to run one.