What the forecast is for
Every forecast exists to feed a decision with a lead time. Named, it becomes an instrument; unnamed, it becomes a number people quote.
What a Forecast Is Actually For
A forecast exists to feed a decision with a lead time. What changes when the decision is named, and what a number becomes when it is not.
The Decision Has a Lead Time, and It Sets the Horizon
Why the horizon is read off the decision's lead time rather than off the calendar, how to measure a lead time honestly, and what to do when it is longer than the data supports.
Forecasts Nobody Acts On
How a forecast becomes a monthly ritual that changes nothing, the four reasons it happens, and how to end it without ending the forecasting.
Who the Forecast Is For
The reader determines the form of a forecast more than the data does. Four readers, what each needs, and why one document cannot serve them all.
The Number That Became a Target
What happens when a forecast is used as a target, why the forecast stops being informative within two cycles, and how to keep the two numbers apart.
What Accuracy Is Worth
Accuracy has a price and a value, and they are rarely compared. How to work out what a percentage point of error costs, and when more modelling stops paying.
Writing Down What the Forecast Will Be Used For
A four-line header that says what a forecast is for, who decides, by when and to what tolerance — and what each line prevents.